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Getreideimporte der ärmsten Länder verteuern sich um 56 Prozent - The cereal import bill of the world’s poorest countries will rise by 56 percent

Vierteljahresbericht der UN-Organisation für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (FAO) / FAO: Crop Prospects and Food Situation report

Am 11. April 2008 legte die UN-Organisation für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (FAO - Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations) in Rom einen alarmierenden Bericht über die Ernährungslage der Welt vor. Den ärmsten Ländern der Welt, insbesondere in Afrika und Asien, aber auch in Lateinamerika, drohen ernsthafte Engpässe bei der Versorgung mit Lebensmitteln, verursacht vor allem durch dramatische Steigerungen der Getreidepreise.
Im Folgenden dokumentieren wir hierzu:


Hunger im Überfluß

Von Klaus Fischer *

Die UN-Organisation für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (FAO) befürchtet weitere Preissteigerungen für Nahrungsmittel. Diese Entwicklung bedrohe weltweit Millionen der ärmsten Menschen, warnte die UN-Gliederung in ihrem am Freitag in Rom veröffentlichten Quartalsbericht. In vielen Entwicklungsländern seien die Preise für Brot, Reis, Milch und andere Grundnahrungsmittel in den vergangenen Monaten drastisch gestiegen, heißt es in dem Papier.

Die Preisexplosion hat nichts mit einer Knappheit an Getreide zu tun. Im Jahr 2007 war die weltweite Getreideproduktion um fast fünf Prozent ausgeweitet worden. In diesem Jahr erwartet die FAO eine weitere Steigerung und rechnet mit einer Rekordernte von 2,16 Milliarden Tonnen. Dies könnte, so hoffen die Experten der UN-Organisation, die angespannte Lage etwas verbessern. Diese scheint in zahlreichen Ländern inzwischen bedrohlich.

Im armen Karibikstaat Haiti waren in der zurückliegenden Woche mehrere Personen bei Hungerprotesten getötet worden. In Ägypten, Burkina Faso, Kamerun, Indonesien, Côte d’Ivoire, Mauretanien, Moçambique und Senegal begehren die Hungernden auf. In großen asiatischen Staaten wie Indien, Pakistan, Indonesien oder auf den Philippinen versuchen die Regierungen, mit Hilfe staatlicher Subventionen das Schlimmste abzuwenden. FAO-Generaldirektor Jacques Diouf fürchtet, daß bald weitere Krisenherde hinzukommen.

Inzwischen hat das Thema auch die Regierungssitze der reichen westlichen Industriestaaten erreicht. Der Klimawandel, die Produktion von Biosprit, veränderte Ernährungsgewohnheiten in den Schwellenländern und gestiegene Ölpreise trieben derzeit die Nahrungsmittelpreise in die Höhe, warnte die deutsche Enwicklungshilfeministerin Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul. Vor ihrer Abreise zur Frühjahrstagung von IWF und Weltbank forderte die SPD-Politikerin am Freitag bezahlbare Lebensmittel für alle.

Großbritanniens Premierminister Gordon Brown will offenbar auf dem G-8-Gipfel im Juli auf Hokkaido das Thema Biokraftstoffe auf die Agenda setzen. Die Staatschefs der sieben wichtigsten westlichen Wirtschaftsnationen und Rußlands sollten über die Auswirkungen des Biospritbooms auf die weltweiten Lebensmittelpreise sprechen, hatte der Londoner Guardian am Donnerstag aus einem Brief Browns an seinen japanischen Kollegen Yasuo Fukuda zitiert. »Es herrscht zunehmend Konsens darüber, daß wir die Auswirkungen der verschiedenen Arten und Herstellungsweisen von Biokraftstoffen auf die Lebensmittelpreise untersuchen müssen«, soll Brown geschrieben haben.

Nach Ansicht vieler Experten sind es nicht Biospritanbau und gestiegene Ener­giekosten allein, die Nahrungsmittel derart verteuern. Vor allem haben internationale Investoren nach dem Quasi-Zusammenbruch der US-Finanzmärkte einen beträchtlichen Teil ihrer Gelder in die Rohstoff- und Nahrungsgüterbranche lanciert. Die dadurch angeheizte Spekulation dürfte wesentlich zur Teuerung beigetragen haben. So verdoppelten sich nach Angaben der Neuen Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) die Preise für Weizen und Soja zwischen Frühjahr 2007 und Mitte Februar 2008. Mais sei seit letztem Herbst um 66 Prozent, Reis in den vergangenen zehn Monaten um etwa 75 Prozent teurer geworden. Der von der FAO berechnete Food-Price-Index ist innerhalb nur eines Jahres (März zu März) um 57 Prozent gestiegen. Damit seien die Nahrungsmittel für erhebliche Teile der Weltbevölkerung zu teuer geworden, ihre Kaufkraft genüge nicht mehr, sich ausreichend zu ernähren, so die NZZ.

* Aus: junge Welt, 12. April 2008

Highlights

Eine Zusammenfassung der wichtigsten Ergebnisse des FAO-Reports vom 11. April 2008

World cereal production in 2008 is forecast to increase 2.6 percent to a record 2 164 million tonnes. The bulk of the increase is expected to be in wheat following significant expansion in plantings in major producing countries. Coarse grains output is tentatively forecast to remain around the bumper level of last year. Rice production is foreseen to increase slightly reflecting production incentives in several Asian countries. However, much will depend on climatic conditions in the coming months.

Should the expected growth in 2008 production materialize, the current tight global cereal supply situation could ease in the new 2008/09 season.

International cereal prices have risen further in the past two months reflecting steady demand. Prices of rice increased the most following the imposition of new export restrictions by major exporting countries. By the end of March prices of wheat and rice were about twice their levels of a year earlier, while those of maize were more than one-third higher.

In 2007/08 the cereal import bill of the LIFDCs as a group is forecast to increase considerably for the second consecutive year. Prices of basic foods have soared in domestic markets across the world leading to social unrest in several countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. Governments of both cereal importing and exporting countries are taking a series of measures to limit the impact of higher international cereal prices on food consumption.

In the LIFDCs, as a group, early prospects point to another only marginal increase in 2008 cereal production. Excluding the largest countries, China and India, the output of the remaining LIFDCs is tentatively forecast to decline slightly.

In Southern Africa, where the 2008 main season cereal harvest is about to start, aggregate output is forecast to increase sharply from last year’s level. However, another reduced crop is anticipated in Zimbabwe. In North Africa, a strong recovery of winter cereal production is expected after severe drought in 2007.

In Asia, prospects for the 2008 wheat crop, already close to harvest, are favourable although outputs are forecast below the record levels of last year. In South America, a record 2008 maize crop is being gathered mainly due to larger plantings. In Central America, a good wheat crop is expected in Mexico.



Poorest countries’ cereal bill continues to soar, governments try to limit impact

Forecast growth in 2008 cereal production could ease tight global supply

11 April 2008, Rome – The cereal import bill of the world’s poorest countries is forecast to rise by 56 percent in 2007/2008. This comes after a significant increase of 37 percent in 2006/2007, FAO said today.

For low-income food-deficit countries in Africa, the cereal bill is projected to increase by 74 percent, according to the UN agency’s latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report. The increase is due to the sharp rise in international cereal prices, freight rates and oil prices.

International cereal prices have continued to rise sharply over the past two months, reflecting steady demand and depleted world reserves, the report said. Prices of rice increased the most following the imposition of new export restrictions by major exporting countries. By the end of March prices of wheat and rice were about double their levels of a year earlier, while those of maize were more than one-third higher, according to the report.

FAO has launched an Initiative on Soaring Food Prices (ISFP), offering technical and policy assistance to poor countries affected by high food prices in order to assist vulnerable farmers to increase local food production. Field activities are starting in Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Mozambique and Senegal. FAO will also help governments prepare actions and strategies to increase agricultural production. In collaboration with the World Food Programme, IFAD and other partners, FAO will enlarge its food market information system to pull together and analyze various data sources at local, national and international levels and to disseminate this information. FAO has allocated US$17 million for these activities.

Domestic food prices spur social unrest

Prices of bread, rice, maize products, milk, oil, soybeans and others basic foods have increased sharply in recent months in a number of developing countries, despite policy measures -- including export restrictions, subsidies, tariff reductions and price controls -- taken by governments of both cereal importing and exporting countries to limit the impact of international prices on domestic food markets.

Food riots have been reported in Egypt, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Madagascar, the Philippines and Haiti in the past month. In Pakistan and Thailand, army troops have been deployed to avoid seizing of food from the fields and from warehouses.

“Food price inflation hits the poor hardest, as the share of food in their total expenditures is much higher than that of wealthier populations,” said Henri Josserand of FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning system. “Food represents about 10-20 percent of consumer spending in industrialized nations, but as much as 60-80 percent in developing countries, many of which are net-food-importers.”

2008 forecast: production up

According to FAO’s first forecast world cereal production in 2008 is to increase by 2.6 percent to a record 2 164 million tonnes. The bulk of the increase is expected in wheat, following significant expansion in plantings in major producing countries.

“Should the expected growth in 2008 production materialize, the current tight global cereal supply situation could ease in the new 2008/09 season,” the report said.

But much will depend on the weather, FAO cautioned, recalling that at this time last year prospects for cereal production in 2007 were far better than the eventual outcome. Unfavourable climatic conditions devastated crops in Australia and reduced harvests in many other countries, particularly in Europe.

“Favourable climatic conditions will be even more critical in the new season because world cereal reserves are depleted,” the report said.

According to FAO’s forecast, world cereal stocks are expected to fall to a 25-year-low of 405 million tonnes in 2007/08, down 21 million tonnes, or 5 percent, from their already reduced level of the previous year.

“Any major shortfalls resulting from unfavourable weather, particularly in exporting countries, would prolong the current tight market situation; contribute to more price rallies and exacerbate the economic hardship already facing many countries,” the report said.

FAO urges all donors and International Financing Institutions to increase their assistance or consider reprogramming part of their ongoing aid in countries negatively affected by high food prices. A tentative estimation of the additional funding required by the governments to implement country projects and programmes for dealing with soaring food prices ranges between US$ 1,2 and 1,7 billion. The release of these funds can provide important support for poor farmers, including access to inputs and assets, to enhance the food supply response in the next agricultural seasons.

Worldwide, 37 countries are currently facing food crises, according to the report.


Liste der 37 Krisenländer, die auf äußere Hilfe angewiesen sind (nach Kontinenten und Kategorien)

COUNTRIES IN CRISIS REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE1 (total: 37 countries)

AFRICA (21 countries)

Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
  • Lesotho
    Multiple year droughts until last season
  • Somalia
    Conflict, adverse weather
  • Swaziland
    Multiple year droughts until last season
  • Zimbabwe
    Deepening economic crisis, drought last season, recent floods
Widespread lack of access
  • Eritrea
    IDPs, economic constraints
  • Liberia
    Post-conflict recovery period
  • Mauritania
    Several years of drought
  • Sierra Leone
    Post-conflict recovery period
Severe localized food insecurity
  • Burundi
    Civil strife, IDPs and returnees
  • Central African Republic
    Refugees, insecurity in parts
  • Chad
    Refugees, conflict
  • Congo, Democratic Republic of
    Civil strife, returnees
  • Congo, Republic of
    IDPs
  • Côte d'Ivoire
    Civil strife
  • Ethiopia
    Insecurity in parts, localized crop failure
  • Ghana
    Drought and floods
  • Guinea
    Refugees
  • Guinea-Bissau
    Localized insecurity
  • Kenya
    Civil strife, adverse weather
  • Sudan
    Civil strife
  • Uganda
    Civil strife in the north, localized crop failure

ASIA (10 countries)

Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
  • Iraq
    Conflict and insecurity
Widespread lack of access
  • Afghanistan
    Conflict and insecurity
  • Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of
    Economic constraints and effects of past floods
Severe localized food insecurity
  • Bangladesh
    Past floods and cyclone, avian influenza
  • China
    Disastrous cold, ice and snow in the south
  • Nepal
    Poor market access, conflict and past floods
  • Sri Lanka
    Conflict and floods
  • Tajikistan
    Severe cold, floods/landslides, poor market access
  • Timor-Leste
    IDPs, past drought and floods
  • Viet Nam
    Cold spell in the north

LATIN AMERICA (5 countries)

Severe localized food insecurity
  • Bolivia
    Floods
  • Dominican Republic
    Past floods
  • Ecuador
    Floods
  • Haiti
    Past floods
  • Nicaragua
    Past floods

EUROPE (1 country)

Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
  • Moldova
    Drought, limited access to inputs for winter cropping



Liste vier weiterer Länder Afrikas, denen schlechte Ergebnisse bei der gegenwärtigen Ernte vorausgesagt werden

COUNTRIES WITH UNFAVOURABLE PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT CROPS 2

AFRICA
  • Ethiopia
    Insufficient rainfall
  • Kenya
    Insufficient rainfall
  • Somalia
    Adverse weather, conflicts
  • Zimbabwe
    Early Floods and late dry spells in parts, shortage of inputs


Hier geht es zur Website der FAO (englisch): www.fao.org


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